Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Kevin Drum makes predictions:
*If Obama wins, unemployment will average about 5 percent. If McCain wins it will average about 6 percent.
*If Obama wins, real GDP growth will average about 3 percent per year. If McCain wins it will average less than 2 percent per year.
*If Obama wins, poor families will see their incomes grow by more than $6,000 during the next eight years. If McCain wins their incomes will grow by less than $1,000.
*If Obama wins, middle-class families will see their incomes grow by about $13,000 during the next eight years. If McCain wins their incomes will grow by about $5,000.
*If Obama wins (hold on to your hats for this one), rich families will see their incomes grow by about $36,000 during the next eight years. If McCain wins their incomes will grow by about $32,000.
*If Obama wins (hold on to your hats again), the stock market will perform better: the average return on stocks compared to Treasury bills will be about 9 percent. If McCain wins it will be about 4 percent.
*If Obama wins, the national debt will grow about $150 billion per year. If McCain wins it will grow $400 billion per year. (For more, see Gregg Easterbrook, page 15.)
*And no matter who wins, average annual inflation will be around 4 percent.

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