Current polls as aggregated by Poblano show Obama's path to victory as NM (which Obama currently has a 66% chance of winning) + NV (65%) + CO (68%) + MI (54%). This plus Obama's 157 electoral-vote base plus the Dem swing states (WA, OR, MN, NJ, IA, WI, PA --- together worth 81 electoral votes) adds up to 274 electoral votes.

Therefore, Obama should pick Richardson for VP.